Aaron Rodgers is formally again with the Pittsburgh Steelers. After months of consternation about his future, ultimately, all it took was a report that the Steelers had been rising weary of Rodgers “will he, gained’t he” routine for him to return to the social gathering, signal his one-year deal, and cement that he’s taking part in in 2026. Humorous how that works.
This places the entire Rodgers mess to mattress, a minimum of for one more season. Now the Steelers can transfer forward with some form of certainty on the quarterback place after staring down the gun of probably needing to begin Mason Rudolph, Will Howard, or rookie Drew Allar — functionally ending the workforce’s season earlier than it begins. The query now pivots to what’s the ceiling of this workforce with Rodgers on the helm, and will this find yourself being an enormous mistake?
The query of whether or not or not that is the right transfer is couched wholly in a single undeniable fact: Each NFL workforce must rebuild finally. It’s a actuality the Steelers have been staving off since Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement following the 2021 season, and to their credit score, the group has been aggressive — however there’s additionally been a ceiling with regards to quarterback. Whether or not it was Kenny Pickett, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, or Aaron Rodgers, the workforce has been a constant playoff workforce, however that’s the place the success ends. The Steelers have been bounced within the Wild Card spherical throughout their final 5 playoff appearances, and that you must return to 2017 to search out the final time Pittsburgh made it out of the opening spherical.
With the addition of Michael Pittman Jr. there’s no query that is the perfect receiving corps the workforce has had in years, and with Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle the workforce has an enchanting one-two punch at operating again for this upcoming season. Now it’s time to speak brass tacks: Is that this new-look Steelers workforce demonstrably higher for bringing again Aaron Rodgers, and what’s their ceiling?
The Steelers end 9-8, make the playoffs, second within the AFC North
After months of hypothesis, the Pittsburgh Steelers have their quarterback for the 2026 season.
Aaron Rodgers ended that hypothesis, agreeing to phrases on a one-year take care of the Steelers over this previous weekend. Rodgers is already again at work, having been noticed inside the ability because the workforce opens OTAs this Monday morning.
However how a lot does Rodgers transfer the needle for the Steelers at this level in his profession? Based mostly on final season, most likely not a lot.
Whereas Rodgers represented arguably the most suitable choice for the Steelers at a very powerful place within the sport, that can also be a relative idea. In spite of everything, past Rodgers the Steelers had been taking a look at second-year quarterback Will Howard, rookie Drew Allar, or longtime backup Mason Rudolph. On condition that, Rodgers is the most suitable choice.
However that is nonetheless a quarterback that posted an Adjusted Web Yards per Try of 6.3 final 12 months – rating him 18th amongst certified quarterbacks within the NFL – with a QBR of 44.4, which ranked him twenty seventh within the league. If you have a look at Quarterback Effectivity, a metric that compares each Anticipated Factors Added per Cross and Completion Share over Expectation, you see the remainder of the image. Right here is that chart, courtesy of RBSDM.com:
Final 12 months Rodgers was, at greatest, a league-average quarterback.
How a lot does a league-average quarterback, one 12 months older, transfer the needle for the Steelers?
Most likely not a lot, in a crowded AFC subject and specifically a tough AFC North, with the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals anticipated to be powerful opponents this 12 months, and the Cleveland Browns coming off a really spectacular offseason.
What may very well be a saving grace for the Steelers is that the AFC North is paired with the NFC South this 12 months for non-conference video games, which may assist their document a bit. However one explicit stretch of their schedule stands out: A run following their bye week, which sees Pittsburgh play at Cincinnati, at Philadelphia, in opposition to Denver on a brief week, in opposition to Houston, at Jacksonville, and in opposition to Baltimore. These six weeks will decide their season. However proper now, this seems to be like a workforce that has a ceiling of 10-7, sneaks into the playoffs, and heads residence after Wild Card Weekend.
The Steelers end 8-9, miss the playoffs, third within the AFC North
Simply go forward and throw within the eternally misattributed quote in regards to the definition of madness being making an attempt the identical factor time and again. There may be completely little doubt that Aaron Rodgers has began to regress, and whereas a regressing Rodgers continues to be higher than any various for Pittsburgh, that doesn’t imply he can be notably good.
The prime challenge with the passing sport is that Rodgers now not has the arm to throw deep with consistency. Whereas he’s by no means been a ten+ ADoT man, it was all the time a component of his sport. Look again on his prime years in Inexperienced Bay: Groups acquired eaten alive by secondary receivers on 15-yard patterns due to the ever-present menace Davante Adams posed excessive. That was the rationale behind the mammoth D.Ok. Metcalf commerce a 12 months in the past, however that actually didn’t pan out, primarily as a result of Rodgers can’t hit that deep ball anymore with regularity, and defenses understand it.
There’s little doubt in my thoughts that Metcalf will return to being a 1,000-yard receiver this season with Pittman taking a number of the consideration within the passing sport, however that doesn’t imply we’re going to see a drastically higher Steelers workforce consequently. Will probably be extra of a change in useful resource allocation, with fewer passes going to the operating backs and tight finish. That gained’t end in extra explosive performs, which is the issue I see Pittsburgh having proper now as constructed.
Take heed to new-school NFL coaches discuss, and it’s all about successful the explosive battle. Analytics present that the workforce capable of generate extra massive performs goes on to win. It was once the turnover battle; now it’s this. Sean McVay, Ben Johnson, Liam Coen, Dave Canales — the record goes on, all preach the significance of those explosive performs. The Steelers are good at stopping explosives, however not at producing them, particularly with Aaron Rodgers beneath heart.
The AFC North is an unpredictable division, made moreso by three groups having new head coaches and the opposite having Zac Taylor, which is a bit of like not having a soccer coach in any respect. Anybody may conceivably win, however the longevity of the Steelers within the playoffs is non-existent. They’d have been much better off taking their lumps in 2026, and discovering their QB of the longer term within the 2027 NFL Draft.
As a substitute, they’ll limp to a near-playoff season when it may have set them up for the subsequent decade.
