The March 2026 report on European demographic developments discovered that Genoa, Italy, is on the largest danger of changing into a “ghost city” within the subsequent decade. With delivery charges falling under demise charges throughout Europe, a brand new examine by World Depopulationa world demographics analytics device, exhibits which cities face the sharpest inhabitants drops.
https://worlddepopulation.org/
- Genoa, Italy, faces the worst demographic disaster in Europe, with almost 30% of residents over 65 and extra deaths than births yearly.
- Polish cities are emptying out quick, with Katowice and Lodz each rating among the many 5 cities at highest danger of inhabitants collapse.
- Porto, Portugal, loses 0.7% of residents yearly, shrinking quicker than every other main European metropolis.
The examine aimed to determine European cities most prone to long-term demographic decline. The report compiled an inventory of worldwide cities with populations over 500K residents, then chosen solely European cities situated in international locations experiencing adverse inhabitants progress in 2026. The analysis then examined three elements for every metropolis: common inhabitants change till 2036, the share of residents aged 65 and over, and pure inhabitants stability calculated by evaluating demise charges with delivery charges. These indicators had been mixed to create a Ghost City Danger Rating from 0 to 100, with larger scores that means cities face the worst demographic decline.
This is a take a look at the highest 10 European cities most prone to changing into ghost cities:
| Nation | Metropolis | Common Inhabitants change till 2036 | % of Inhabitants 65 and over | Pure Steadiness (Delivery rates-Demise charges) | Danger Rating |
| Italy | Genoa | -0.34 | 28.50% | -8.0 | 100 |
| Poland | Katowice | -0.64 | 21.50% | -5.98 | 95 |
| Portugal | Porto | -0.71 | 21.10% | -2.92 | 93 |
| Italy | Turin | -0.36 | 25.20% | -5.84 | 86 |
| Poland | Lodz | -0.39 | 23.10% | -7.46 | 85 |
| Germany | Dortmund | -0.62 | 20.40% | -3.15 | 84 |
| Spain | Bilbao | -0.42 | 23.20% | -5.29 | 83 |
| Italy | Palermo | -0.58 | 20.30% | -3.64 | 82 |
| Germany | Leipzig | -0.55 | 20.50% | -1.98 | 77 |
| Spain | Zaragoza | -0.47 | 21.20% | -2.96 | 76 |
You may entry the entire analysis findings right here.
1. Genoa, Italy
- Common inhabitants change till 2036: -0.34% yearly
- Share of inhabitants 65 and over: 28.5%
- Pure stability (births minus deaths): -8.0
- Demographic Danger rating: 100
Genoa is on the largest danger of changing into a ghost city over the subsequent decade. The Italian port metropolis sees deaths outnumber births by 8 to 1, the worst stability throughout all main European cities studied. Practically 30% of Genoa’s residents are additionally over 65, that means the working-age group shrinks quicker every year. Inhabitants projections present the town shedding 0.34% of its residents yearly by way of 2036, which interprets to hundreds of individuals disappearing as older generations go away with out sufficient newborns to switch them.
2. Katowice, Poland
Katowice comes second with the steepest inhabitants drop in Europe. The Polish metropolis loses 0.64% of its residents every year, almost double Genoa’s fee. That is as a result of Katowice data about 6 deaths for each delivery, creating an enormous inhabitants hole that may’t be closed by way of immigration alone. The town has a 21.5% aged inhabitants, barely youthful than Genoa, however with the fast inhabitants loss, Katowice faces critical demographic collapse throughout the subsequent 10 years.
3. Porto, Portugal
Porto ranks third, experiencing the quickest annual shrinkage fee in Europe at 0.71%. In contrast to Genoa and Katowice, Porto has a youthful inhabitants, with 21% over 65, however the metropolis nonetheless struggles to take care of this demographic stability. Deaths exceed births by almost 3 to 1 right here, and the northern Portuguese metropolis’s populace has been declining for the reason that early 2000s. At this fee, Porto is projected to lose 75K extra residents by 2036, bringing its inhabitants to 900K.
4. Turin, Italy
Turin is one other Italian metropolis going through a critical demographic disaster. One quarter of the town’s inhabitants is over 65 (25.2%), making it the second-oldest city among the many prime 5. The northern Italian metropolis was as soon as an industrial chief, however as factories closed and younger folks moved away, deaths now outnumber births by almost 6 to 1. Consequently, Turin at present loses 0.36% of its inhabitants every year.
5. Lodz, Poland
Lodz rounds out the highest 5 cities on the largest danger of changing into ghost cities. The Polish metropolis data a big imbalance between demise and delivery charges, with greater than 7 folks dying for each new child. And with 23% of locals already over 65, Lodz loses 0.39% of residents yearly. The town’s inhabitants peaked at over 800K within the Eighties however has since dropped under 700K, and present developments recommend it may fall beneath 600K by the mid-2030s.
A demographics professional from World Depopulation commented on the examine:
“What makes this completely different from regular inhabitants decline is the velocity. A metropolis shedding 0.6% or 0.7% yearly means it’s going to be 10% smaller in simply 15 years. And in demographic phrases, that is a collapse. Faculties shut, companies shut down, property values drop, after which extra younger folks depart as a result of there’s nothing for them. It turns into a cycle that is extraordinarily laborious to interrupt as soon as it begins.”
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