Phil Jackson had a helpful rule for figuring out the NBA’s actual championship contenders properly earlier than the playoffs started. Jackson is credited because the creator ‘40-20 rule,’ which states a workforce has to hit 40 wins earlier than 20 losses within the common season to have a shot on the title. This rule has held up shockingly properly all through time, with 18 of the final 19 champions and 41 of the final 45 champions becoming into the factors. Solely the the 1995 Houston Rockets, 2004 Detroit Pistons, 2006 Miami Warmth, and 2021 Milwaukee Bucks have received an NBA championship with out profitable 40 video games earlier than shedding 20 video games for the reason that league launched the three-point line for the 1979-1980 season.
With the Boston Celtics’ loss to the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday evening, there’s now solely three groups that match Jackson’s ‘40-20 rule’ for this season’s 2026 championship race:
The Pistons went 14-68 two years in the past. What’s modified since then? Cade Cunningham began dwelling as much as the hype as a former No. 1 total decide, Jalen Duren developed into an All-Star heart, and head coach JB Bickerstaff (who changed Monty Williams after the 14-win season) whipped the protection into the league’s No. 2 unit behind homegrown gamers like Isaiah Stewart, Ausar Thompson, and Ron Holland. Detroit made an enormous bounce to 44 wins final yr then had the Knicks sweating in a troublesome first-round sequence. Proper now, the Pistons are on tempo to win 61.5 video games this season. It’s merely an unimaginable turnaround.
The Spurs have been all the time destined to be a contender finally with Victor Wembanyama, however nobody thought it could occur this shortly. Wembanyama hasn’t even performed a playoff sport but, however that received’t cease the Spurs from being a well-liked decide to win all of it this yr. Wembanyama’s defensive affect is ranges past another participant alive, and he’s a top-10 offensive participant, too. San Antonio put a stable supporting forged round him this yr by buying and selling for De’Aaron Fox, signing Luke Kornet in free company, and rejuvenating Harrison Barnes’ profession. The Spurs have confirmed it’s higher to be fortunate than good by shifting up within the lottery three straight years for Wembanyama, Stephon Fort, and Dylan Harper. This group lit two lottery picks on hearth within the 2020s with Josh Primo and Jeremy Sochan, nevertheless it didn’t even matter as a result of they landed the very best prospect ever after which moved up into the top-4 of the lottery the subsequent two years.
The NBA’s issues — tanking, load administration, a sometimes crappy All-Star Recreation — get all the consideration, however the playoffs could be the very best product in all of sports activities proper now. This final Tremendous Bowl sucked! In the meantime, final yr’s Thunder-Pacers NBA Finals was wonderful, and this yr’s title race can be as vast open and aggressive because it has ever been. The ‘40-20 rule’ hitting 41 out of 45 years is astounding. If the Pistons, Spurs, or Thunder win all of it this yr, please keep in mind that Phil Jackson was proper once more.
